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Iran – Tehran’s domestic and foreign impasse

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Ali Safavi

Ahmadinejad no brakes

Ahmadinejad on Iran nuclear issue: No brakes and no turning back

Since the adoption of Resolution 1747 by the UN Security Council imposing harsher sanctions against the Iranian regime, signs are emerging that the mullahs are feeling the heat. Earlier this week, the former President and head of the powerful State Expediency Council Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned of the precarious situation with which Tehran is faced.

He urged rival factions to maintain unity, adding, "The issue of the use of nuclear energy is a serious and real problem between the Islamic Republic and our interlocutors, especially those in the West," according to the state news agency IRNA on April 15.

Rafsanjani’s concerns are not without reason. Aside from the resolution, the past few days have seen several significant political developments pointing to further isolation of the ruling theocracy.

The European Union agreed that it should toughen up sanctions. Reuters reported on April 17 that EU member states were preparing to impose harsher sanctions against the Iranian regime.

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Iran – International menace; tormenter of Iranian people

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Nima Sharif

Iran human rightsAs the row over Iran’s hostage-taking of British sailors is now officially over, once again, it seems, that this countries nuclear ambitions are taking the center stage and the new UN 1747 Resolution on Iran further pressures Ahmadinejad’s government into a self-initiated countdown to a complete international isolation.

Domestically, however the mullahs are stepping up oppression on the Iranian people to ward off the effects of external pressure, materializing at home as a rapidly growing dissent amongst Iranians.

There have been many reports of defecting officials among the government ranks some of whom have received considerable media attention.  One of the most media-covered was the sudden disappearance of a senior intelligent officer by the name of Alireza Asghari last month in Turkey.  Other reports of defect, some in groups, have been popping up periodically.

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Outside View: Act of grace or desperation?

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ALI SAFAVI
UPI Outside View Commentator

Ahmadinejad warPARIS, April 6 (UPI) — While everyone breathed a sigh of relief over the release of 15 British sailors held captive by the Iranian regime for nearly two weeks, the theatrics played out on television screens during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s news conference in Tehran Wednesday were despicable to say the least.
With all the fuss gone now, a simple question lingers: What was Tehran trying to achieve? The abduction-at-gunpoint was obviously an attempt to counteract the dire impact of a second U.N. Security Council sanction resolution at home, but more importantly intended to boost the morale of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ top brass, which had been shell shocked after being singled out in the U.N. document.

After initial threats of putting the sailors on trial, demanding an admission from the British that the sailors had trespassed Iranian waters, insisting on an apology and hurling stones and firecrackers at the British embassy in Tehran, Ahmadinejad and company realized that the whole thing had become a liability. With international pressure building, they realized they had overplayed their hand and had no choice but to resort to an escapade of a medal ceremony and an invocation of the Prophet of Islam’s birthday and Easter during the thug-turned-president 45-minute rambling to hide one essential truth: The mullahs of Iran are weak and fragile, and to keep their grip on power they are gabbing at straws just like a drowning man would.

For anyone watching the news conference, the whole episode, and in particular Ahmadinejad’s ugly showmanship, was quite repulsive. Here you had a henchman dubbed as terminator at home, boasting of mercy and forgiveness and seeking to take the moral high ground.

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An Iranian lesson for the British

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Jubin Afshar

Iran appeasment policy

From: http://www.coxandforkum.com

As the drama in Tehran over the detention of 15 British marines drags on, the Iranian regime continues to escalate the confrontation. Today about 200 Iranian revolutionary guards and intelligence agents dressed up as Iranian “students” threw rocks and firecrackers at the British Embassy and scaled its fences while Iranian security forces held back from intervening just enough to scare some sense into the British personnel at the Embassy.

Just so the message was not lost on the British, the “students” chanted “British Den of Spies,” a clear reference to the hostage-taking episode in 1979 when another band of so-called students took over the US Embassy in Tehran and held US diplomats hostage for 444 days. Since that episode Tehran has learnt how to get its way in the international arena.

Throughout last week the Iranian regime paraded hapless British marines on TV screens and coerced them to call on their government to withdraw from Iraq, and apologize for trespassing on Iranian territorial waters. They also “hospitably” put a headscarf on Leading Seaman Faye Turney’s head to underline their message and intimidate a weak political leadership in Britain.

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Paying the price for appeasement

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Ali Safavi

Iran Nuke reaction

http://www.coxandforkum.com/

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ capture-at-gunpoint of 15 British sailors in the waters off the Iraqi coast last week was a brazen act in every respect. But, it was only the latest in the long chain of the Iranian regime’s outlaw behavior over the past two decades.

This act of belligerence, just before the United Nations Security Council adopted a second sanction resolution against Tehran, was a reminder that no matter how generous the incentives and how willing the gullible Europeans to offer them, Tehran is not about to abandon its nuclear weapons program, which it considers to be indispensable to its strategic survival.

And how have the British government reacted so far? Quite pathetic to say the least, still holding out the hope that it could convince the mullahs to release the captives through negotiations. Meanwhile, the sailors continue to "confess" and "write letters of apology."

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How to make Tehran listen

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Joseph Omidvar
ImageOnce again the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted on a resolution asking Iran to halt its nuclear activities. It gave Iran 60 days to execute the contents of the resolution.

Iran promptly rejected the resolution. Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s Foreign Minister said: "Suspension of uranium enrichment is not an option for Iran."

Just hours before ratification of the resolution, Tehran’s Friday prayer leader, Imami Kashani, who speaks for the ruling clerics stated: "If the UN Security Council ratifies ten more resolutions, we will not suspend uranium enrichment."

Even if we neglect the reliable intelligence and evidence regarding the clandestine activities of the Iranian regime to build nuclear weapons, and if we ignore specific findings by IAEA’s chief Mohammed ElBradei regarding the existence of activities undeclared to the nuclear agency for 20 years, Iran’s disregard for the Security Council resolutions and its defiance to repeated calls by the international community for negotiations is sufficient to conclude that the Iranian regime is determined to acquire nuclear weapons.  Obviously, a county with large gas and petroleum reserves (second in the world) should not insist on uranium enrichment just for nuclear energy in the face of international opposition and censure.

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Iran blackmails, Britain negotiates

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ImageJubin Afshar
Iran has once again seized British sailors just like it did three years ago. In that episode Iran managed to extract as much leverage on the British government as it could to steer itself through rough international waters designed to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The seizure of the British servicemen this time around, was again accompanied with tough talk from Tehran and its military spokesman and accusations that the British “illegal entrance into Iranian waters” is “a suspicious and aggressive action.”

Iranian state media reported that the 15 Britons had been transferred to Tehran, where a senior Iranian military official was quoted as saying they had “confessed to illegal entry into Iran’s waters.”

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Iran: Détente or Appeasement?

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Jubin Afshar
20 March 2007 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad CartoonAmong the most curious aspects of the debate over how to handle the rogue Iranian regime is perhaps the strew of Iran pundits who consistently argue in favor of accepting the current status quo in Iran, recognizing the Iranian regime as a major regional power, and providing security guarantees for its political survival, and recognizing it on par with a regional superpower to be reckoned with.

Such Iran experts argue that the Iranian regime enjoys widespread domestic support, wields a hefty military punch, and is a formidable enemy if the US or the West were to ever think of confronting it in its pursuit of suspected nuclear weapons or support of terrorism.

Most notable among such experts are Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Vali Nasr, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Gary Sick of the Gulf 2000 Project at Columbia University.

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US-Iran: Why the regime won’t negotiate

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Jubin Afshar
Iran IraqPolitical initiatives to resolve the Iraqi crisis usually attract much attention. The International Baghdad Conference on10 March drew together Iraq’s regional and international partners for a one day conference. The spotlight however was more than anything else on the US delegates, Ambassadors David Satterfield and Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi.

Many analysts asked whether Iran’s seat at the table implied recognition of its regional importance. Whether US recognition of Iran’s role in the region would facilitate a drop in violence in Iraq? Whether direct negotiations at the regional conference could help end 28 years of animosity between Iran and the United Sates? Whether the meeting could affect the outcome of the Iranian nuclear file at the UN Security Council?

But all the above really boiled down to one simple, central question: Is Iran ready to earnestly negotiate with the US?

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London: EU Council of Ministers is bent on appeasing Tehran once more

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Joseph Omidvar
ImageLet’s face it. Iran’s nuclear drive is a "train with no brake and reverse gear," with a driver named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Unless the world leaders find the stop button quickly, a collision might be inevitable. That is an eventuality nobody wants to see. All indications call for need of a new, bold initiative but the EU appears hell-bent on pursuing the threadbare policy of appeasing Tehran once more and the mullahs are always ready to exploit all these signs of craven weakness.

Since Khomeini’s death in 1989 and the so-called “pragmatic” presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani, the EU has continually banked on dealing with a moderating faction within the Iranian regime.

In 1997, Europe saw a new hope — the election of Mohammed Khatami, a “moderate” as president. The appeasement policy of the European countries for the next eight years enabled Tehran to get closer to obtain nuclear weapons. The list of European complicity, acquiescence and groveling submission to the mullahs went on and on.

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