Despite Raisi’s recurring claims about controlling inflation, Iran’s current economic situation starkly contradicts his rhetoric.
In a series of statements dating from August 2021 through May 2023, Raisi consistently assured that his government was vigorously pursuing inflation control. These hollow promises, however, stand in stark contrast to Iran’s economic reality, as revealed by regime officials and state media.
On June 2, the Planning and Budget Organization of the regime acknowledged that Raisi’s administration has accumulated a staggering 11.4 quadrillion rials ($225.4 million) in debt to the Central Bank and state firms.
This economic chaos extends further, as disclosed by Rahim Mombini, Deputy Head of the Planning and Budget Organization. Mombini revealed a 7.9 quadrillion rials budget deficit for Raisi’s government, a figure far surpassing the 4.6 quadrillion rials deficit Raisi himself announced in his 2022-2023 budget law.
Equally concerning is the dwindling reserve of the National Development Fund. Mehdi Ghazanfari, the fund’s chairman, admitted that only $10 billion remained from a $150 billion fund, thanks to Khamenei and Raisi’s mismanagement.
Even Iran’s Social Security Organization is in peril, as noted by its former head, Sajad Padam. Padam candidly shared the urgent need to sell Qeshm and Kish Islands to cover retirees’ pensions, a decision reflecting the country’s critical financial state.
Amid this turmoil, infighting within the “consolidated system” has escalated, with the parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf blaming Raisi’s government for squandering $104 billion annually, with no accountability.
Faced with social and economic crises, the regime has two choices: either reduce malign activities to lift sanctions imposed by global powers or further exploit its people. Yet, halting illicit activities like exporting terrorism and progressing nuclear weaponry could loosen Khamenei’s hold on power. Consequently, he favors furthering the impoverishment of Iranians, risking significant backlash and potential societal revolt.
Rumors of a hike in fuel prices and warnings from regime insiders regarding a repeat of the November 2019 uprising underscore the precarious state of the regime. Despite Khamenei’s aspirations for a consolidated government, a nationwide uprising in September, fueled by the organized opposition, has derailed his plans, placing the ruling theocracy under existential threat.
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