Both the Iranian Resistance and the regime confirm that there is a high chance that another revolution is close. This is just one of the numerous predictions that the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) has suggested in the current situation Iranians are expected to live in.
The MEK Iran states that no longer do the Iranian people want the current regime to rule the country, but they are seeking a free and democratic Iran. The Iranian regime has refused to admit the inevitable and has used vicious suppression, lies and, censorship as a way to maintain power. There have been numerous protests in recent years but the ones in 2018 and November 2019 showed what the people wanted, a regime change.
Much of the state-run media is indicating that there are going to me more nationwide protests and a complete overthrow of the regime is a possibility. The Jamaran website is clear in speaking out about the restlessness now taking place throughout Iran and its origins and a summary of its recent article can be found below.
The #Iranian regime is extremely concerned about the possibility of another nationwide uprising. The people of Iran are so angry with the country’s leadership for a whole host of reasons. https://t.co/YnwMh66hsR#Iran #MEK #COVID19 @USAdarFarsi pic.twitter.com/480xs8ORYc
— MEK Iran (Mujahedin-e Khalq) (@MEK_Iran) May 18, 2020
Summary of Jamaran state-run news media website article
Back last November, according to this state-run media outlet, following dramatic increases in the price of gas, repressive tactics were used by the regime to curb the protests, including the murder of hundreds of Iranians, with thousands imprisoned. These November 2019 events were partly as a result of:
- the average Iranian no longer trusting the regime;
- paying no attention to public opinion;
- excluding social groups from taking part in decision making;
- the decline of social capital.
Economists are saying that there is an increasing gap between the rich and poor that has brought about harsh economic pressure on so many people’s lives and a declining middle class resulting in people seeking ways to resolve these problems.
From the political science point of view, protests have occurred due to the persistent authoritarianism and the lack of opportunities for people to exert their democratic right to free speech like being able to safely protest. Not allowing opposition parties to conduct activities in the country free of suppression had some influence on the outbreak of protests.
In summary, many of the protests that have erupted are based on young people’s criticism and frustration of the regime’s policies that have persisted for the last 40 years. Emerging from this rule are the following:
- unprecedented inflation;
- a deep recession;
- a rise in social class differences;
- a deterioration in national identity;
- no trust in a positive future for the country;
- no suggestions for resolving issues;
- no space available for legal political activity to take place;
- no channels for criticizing the present rulers;
- no evidence of a healthy and fair democracy.
Political & economic experts of the regime in #Iran are constantly asking the question: To what extent the Iranian society can tolerate this? Many warn an uprising at the scale of the Dec 2017 & Nov 2019 unrests—or maybe bigger—is looming on the horizon.https://t.co/xtAAYEVXt9
— People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) (@Mojahedineng) May 18, 2020
For many years the Iranian population has been scared about their present and future. They have been worried about the possibility of war, political instability, and corruption. The youth, in particular, today are afraid of their future and at any time even the slightest event could cause an eruption of social unrest and protests. Last November’s protests which involved the traditional base of the regime’s support, the poor and lower classes, saw the regime lose this support because they arrested the protestors and suppressed their rights to protest.
The regime used to get its support from the urban and social middle class but this was lost in the 1998 and 2009 protests. In 2018 protests support from the traditional middle classes, the guilds, and the bazaars, was damaged. Since the 1979 revolution, these recent protests since November 2019 have been the most political and have involved much younger people. If this lack of hope continues amongst the youth more violent protests are likely to take place unless the regime does something to address the economic inequalities that are becoming greater by the day. If the government turns on the people and implements more repression the likely outcome is a revolution that could lead to a coup d’état or even foreign intervention.