However, the unexpected death of Ebrahim Raisi has disrupted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s plans for a controlled and compliant political environment. Khamenei had intended to consolidate his power by installing loyalists in key positions within the Council of Experts, the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader. Raisi was a pivotal figure in this strategy, and his absence has thrown the regime into a state of uncertainty.
Among the so-called reformists, three notable figures registered: Eshaq Jahangiri, Abbas Akhoundi, and Masoud Pezeshkian. Jahangiri and Akhoundi, both holding significant political influence, were swiftly disqualified, leaving Pezeshkian as the token reformist candidate with little chance against Khamenei’s preferred Principlist candidates.
Despite the slim odds, the sidelined moderate faction seized this opportunity to rally. Former President Mohammad Khatami, who had previously pledged not to participate in the elections, endorsed Pezeshkian. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karoubi, currently under house arrest, also threw their support behind him. This sudden mobilization highlights the regime’s internal desperation to appear democratic and legitimate.
“The regime needs to showcase legitimacy now more than ever,” said political analyst Reza Pahlavi. “The last three elections were marred by voter boycotts. Khamenei is aware that a high turnout, regardless of the actual candidate, is crucial for maintaining his grip on power.”
In a surprising turn, Abbas Abdi, a former regime insider turned media commentator, also urged voters to support Pezeshkian. In his article titled “Sacred Doubt, Profane Shame” published in the state-run Etemad newspaper, Abdi wrote, “The events post-2017 have caused much suffering. The accumulation of grievances and the lack of appropriate responses have turned into resentment and hatred. But if we make politics subject to these emotions, we will get nowhere.”
Despite his plea, Abdi was careful to temper expectations. “I offer no guarantees that what I say is correct or certain! In politics, making definite promises is charlatanism!” he added, highlighting the uncertainty and potential disillusionment following the elections.
Abbas Abdi
As the election date approaches, the Iranian populace remains skeptical. Many view the political machinations as another attempt by the regime to perpetuate its rule. The true test will be whether the orchestrated façade can convince both the domestic audience and international observers of its credibility.
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