The Iranian regime is “desperate” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to be saved with the US rejoining, according to Iranian-American political scientist Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, because of the “financial hardship” and domestic pressure it’s facing.
To provide some background, the US withdrew from the deal in 2018, citing Iranian noncompliance, and began increasing pressure on the mullahs through sanctions just after one uprising began in Iran and just before the next one.
Iran is now finding it hard to pay for its terrorist militias, amongst other things, which is reducing its control on the country and region.
In fact, the economy is so bad that the currency halved in value over 2020 and is now 240,500 rials per US dollar, while the regime is also facing a severe budget deficit.
Rafizadeh wrote: “ All these developments point to the fact that the regime badly needs the nuclear deal, as it would lift the primary and secondary US sanctions on Iran’s energy, banking and oil sectors.
With a return to the deal, the Tehran regime would see billions of dollars flow into its treasury, as trade with the EU and Western investment in the country would also increase. Even Khamenei on Wednesday acknowledged for the first time that Tehran needs an agreement.”
But it should be easy to get the US to rejoin the deal and have sanctions lifted. All Iran has to do is abide by the commitments they agreed to in 2015.
If they’d done so at the start of the year, they could already be reaping the benefits, but Iran chose to increase its breaches of the deal by preparing to enrich uranium to 60% purity and expel inspectors from the Unites Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). They’re also insisting that the US must remove sanctions before they comply with the deal.
Rafizadeh wrote: “If the Iranian regime were to act rationally, it would realize that it does not matter who takes the first step.
In fact, the most informed policy for the regime would be to get the sanctions immediately lifted by taking the first step itself… The only modus operandi this regime is familiar with is resorting to extortion, threats, hard power, and other tough tactics.
With its reluctance to prioritize diplomacy — and its resistance toward taking the first step when it comes to returning to the nuclear deal — the Iranian regime has become its own worst enemy.”