However, these institutions are often at odds, presenting divergent economic statistics and justifications. This inconsistency has become a tool for the regime to justify its economic challenges, leading to public confusion and a growing reliance on external sources for economic data.
Mohammad Reza Farzin, the head of the Central Bank, views these statistical disparities as a historical norm. Meanwhile, President Ebrahim Raisi capitalizes on these differences, citing them to proclaim economic growth and governmental successes. The conflicting figures, however, tell a different story.
For instance, the Iranian Statistical Center reported a 7.5% economic growth in the first half of the current year, in stark contrast to the Central Bank’s 4.7%. This 2.8% disparity translates to a significant 2.2 trillion tomans gap, raising questions about the accuracy of these institutions’ reporting.
#Iran News in Brief
Farshad Momeni, a state-affiliated economist: “Some officials use inaccurate, non-transparent, and unofficial #statistics as a tool to boost their own and others’ morale. They should know that the truth is never permanently concealed.”https://t.co/kug2cGLV9l pic.twitter.com/tkb9zAzYBO— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 5, 2023
These discrepancies are not confined to aggregate numbers. For example, the summer GDP figures vary significantly between the two bodies, with the Statistical Center’s estimate being 986 billion tomans higher than the Central Bank’s. Over the past five years, the Statistical Center has consistently reported GDP figures over 20% higher than those of the Central Bank. Reasons cited for these differences include varying base years and acceptable inflation rates used in calculations.
The divergence extends to sector-specific growth as well. The Central Bank’s non-oil economic growth figure of 2.4% sharply contrasts with the Statistical Center’s 4.2%. Similarly, in the agricultural sector, the Statistical Center reports a negative 3.2% growth, whereas the Central Bank shows a positive 0.1%.
While #Iran's regime is not known for its transparency or reliance on statistics, due to the conflicting interests between the various factions and the exposure made by their affiliated media outlets, some of Raisi and Khamenei’s lies can be discerned.https://t.co/5yexOeOwAy
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 20, 2023
This statistical chaos has drawn concern from state-run media. Donya-ye Eqtesad lamented the resulting confusion in policy dialogue and decision-making, while Jahan-e-Sanat criticized the misleading nature of these statistics. Dr. Mohammad-Qoli Yoosefi, a university professor, questioned the reliability of the economic growth statistics, citing negative national capital account, lack of foreign investment, and technological stagnation.
Media outlets linked to sidelined regime factions attribute the positive economic growth reports to significant discounts in the oil and gas sector. This ‘export leap’ is heavily reliant on oil and gas sales, overshadowing other sectors’ contributions to economic growth.
Watch and judge why this insider is warning that the regime is destined for a collapse or #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/Ysu6LbOhnz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2024
Amidst this statistical turmoil, Iran grapples with a range of economic woes. The country faces high inflation, escalating food prices, and increased housing costs due to its hefty military spending and the ruling elite’s lavish lifestyle.
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