Iran Policy experts: A third sanction resolution is inevitable

Reza Shafa
A new classified report has just recently been prepared by the Iranian regime’s foreign policy experts for the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei and Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) on the possibility of a new UN Security Council resolution on Iran.

There is every indication that the Five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council plus Germany favor a new tougher sanction regime against the mullahs. In their upcoming meeting in New York next week, the world powers will discuss the new resolution.

The report reads in part:

"Muhammad ElBaradei’s report in the short run will be very helpful in our case but in the long run will most probably backfire. After the anticipated time period mentioned in the report, Iran would be obliged under its terms and conditions to comply. It is then that we will have to abide by the contents of the signed agreement with the IAEA.  Most likely the IAEA would demand from us to halt all uranium enrichment activities. No matter how much we had cooperated with ElBaradei, since we would not be ready to stop our enrichment program, after three months, there will not be any guarantees that a much tougher resolution would not be adopted against us."

To tackle the problem, the mullahs have already embarked on a vigorous diplomatic campaign to postpone the process. The regime’s various officials, in recent weeks, have been dispatched to different capitals to rally support for the nuclear program. These officials are at liberty to offer new contracts as incentives to their interlocutors. As an example, the trip by Deputy Foreign Minister on East Asia Affairs, Mehdi Safari to India as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s special envoy is of great importance.

Manouchehr Motaki, the regime’s Foreign Minister traveled to Moscow to thaw the already icy relations with Russia over the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. However, from the outset both sides have serious disputes over the nonpayment for the construction of the plant.

Interior Minister, Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, in a rare move, traveled to Beijing. He too made the trip as Ahmadinejad’s special envoy to China. Upon his arrival, Pour-Mohammadi openly said that he had come to Beijing to consult with the friends on the nuclear issue and the Islamic Republic’s expectations from them in much heated debates in the IAEA and the UN Security Council.  He said, "Friends should not give in to pressures." At the end Pour-Mohammadi hoped that in the current fiscal year trades with China would exceed $20 billion.
It is obvious that the regime is desperately trying to fend off international sanctions at all costs. Possibility of avoiding another resolution seems very remote. However, Khamenei and Ahmadinjad, with their backs against the wall, have no choice but to go ahead full steam.

Reza Shafa is an expert on the Iranian regime’s intelligence networks.