According to the reports by The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), and the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI / MEK Iran), the Iranian regime has not been complying with its side of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal for at least two and a half years now.
JCPOA was too weak
Perhaps the Trump U.S. administration was right when it said that the agreement was too weak all along.
The main goal of the agreement was to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear weapon capability. Another goal was to reduce regional tensions and promote peace in the Middle East. Neither of these goals seems to have been achieved. The regime in Iran has already announced its intention to enrich its uranium stockpile. As well as continue with its policy of intervening in regional disputes and funding terror groups.
Iran’s diplomat convicted
The regime even attempted to bomb an opposition rally in June 2018 in the heart of Europe. Assadollah Assadi, Iran’s chosen diplomat based in Vienna. He has recently been convicted of terrorism and has been sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Belgian court.
The fact that he was acting under instructions from regime officials in Tehran has largely escaped the notice of E.U. leaders.
It was only the announcement of the execution of a joint Iranian French national in Iran, Ruhollah Zam, that stopped a joint business meeting with the Foreign Minister. That meeting is now scheduled to go ahead, despite the terror attack planned in Europe by the regime. And the continued human rights abuses continue unabated.
Development of a nuclear bomb
There remains confusion both within and outside of Iran about the regime’s real nuclear intentions.
An admission by Iranian Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi on February 9th that indeed the regime was pursuing the development of a nuclear bomb has to be taken with a grain of salt as the factional infighting within the regime is resulting in contradictory messaging.
Even Alavi added to the confusion when he said that the fatwa issued by Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, against any nuclear missile development was “against Islam” could be reversed in which case “those who pushed Iran in that direction will be to blame.”
EU appeasement policy
The regime is pursuing a policy of bravado, attempting to bully the E.U. into accepting a version of the JCPOA that will allow Iran to do what it likes without the punishing sanctions that have clearly had an effect on the Iranian economy.
It’s hard to say which way the E.U., will jump at the moment with contradictory signs in both directions.
If the planned Business Forum goes ahead with a conciliatory speech given by Josep Borrell, then the regime will assume that it can relax as it will believe that it will have support from Europe over any negotiations over the JCPOA with the U.S.
Iran’s position is not as strong as some might think. Factional infighting within the ruling regime makes the regime’s position equivocal.
Revelations like those made by Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, on January 22nd, 2019, where he bragged about how Iran had deceived the international community about its compliance record should have rung alarm bells in the E.U.
The reality is that the mullahs will only back down if pressed hard. The policy of appeasement by the west will be a sign of weakness and Tehran will take advantage of it to the west’s security disadvantage.