Iran: Analysts need to look at the regime’s long-term goals

When Donald Trump takes office on 20th January 2017 he will be challenged by the Iranian regime.  This challenge could come immediately or maybe in a few weeks or months. It remains to be seen, but one thing is certain – Iran will challenge the new President. Hopefully Washington will see it coming and will not misinterpret it just like the Obama administration has done in the past.

Analysts have been looking at Iran’s actions for years. That is fine, but they need to analyse deeper than just the surface. The way the regime seems and the way it acts differs hugely from its ideology and its goals. 

Timmerman for said: “This is a regime driven by ideology, fueled on a vision of the end times just as our sun is fueled by its magma. Only rarely does the fuel erupt and become a measurable “event,” although when that happens, it can be deadly. Scientists have warned for years that our electric power grid is vulnerable not only to man-made Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), but to a massive coronal ejection from the sun.”

So the U.S. is vulnerable and could be victim to actions by the Iranian regime – actions that could prove to be devastating. Hopefully the intelligence services could foresee something like this happening, but going by past experiences this is not certain. Analysts seem to ignore some very worrying signs. Or just shake them off as unimportant. For example, the “Death to America” chants that the regime has instilled in others. 

Analysts have also dismissed many important claims by Iran as just “exaggeration”. Yes, the Iranian regime lies and it exaggerates, but some truth is often hidden among the exaggerations. Dismissing their words is dangerous. Leaders of the IRGC have claimed that the U.S. will be driven away from the Middle East. It has been the regime’s goal for a long time and they are still working towards it. Washington dismisses that it will ever happen, but the regime can see it happening in the near future. 

The regime is testing the U.S. That is why it is provoking the U.S. (the American sailors that were captured and humiliated on Iranian TV, for example). The regime has installed Chinese-made C-802 ship-killing missiles on Yemen part of the Red Sea coast.

Obama has allowed all this to happen. He vowed to open dialogue with Iran. But he allowed the Iranian regime to walk all over him. Obama told Iran he wanted to end the age-old hostility between the two countries. So the Iranian regime took this opportunity to take advantage. And it worked. Obama offered to remove sanctions if Iran temporarily reduced nuclear programs. 

We must pay more attention to the regime’s ideology and analyse their long-term goals. A decade of nuclear plans being put on hold is nothing for the Iranian regime when one looks at long-term ambitions. 

Let’s hope Trump will look in the right direction and not fall into the same traps the Obama administration fell into.